CCFP is a strategic forecast of convection to guide traffic managers in their system-wide approach to managing traffic. The CCFP consists of 3 elements: collaboration, forecasts and applications. The CCFP forecast suite is a set of 3 forecast maps with lead times of 4, 6 and 8 hours, updated every 2 hours. Release times, based on Eastern Local Time (ELT), are from 0300 ELT to 2300 ELT, whether on Standard Time or DST.
The CCFP forecast is used by airline industry and FAA participants of the Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) NAS planning process lead by the Federal Aviation Administration’s Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC).
Training briefings are available publically (see below).
Collaboration: Each CCFP is produced by the Aviation Weather Center after collaboration with Meteorological Service of Canada, Center Weather Service Units and meteorological offices of airlines and service providers.
Forecast: Once the final product is produced, each CCFP is posted on the FAA’s TSD, CCSD and on this web site.
Application: Planning TELCONs use the CCFP as the primary convective forecast product for strategic planning. This application by CDM participants results in a National Operations plan every two hours.
The accuracy, precision and consistency of every forecast are verified by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Systems Division. Daily, monthly and seasonal verification statistics and a description of the methodology used can be found at the Forecast System Labs (FSL) web site at: http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/conv/
Forecast Region: the Continental U.S. from March 1st through late October and portions of southern Ontario and southern Quebec, Canada from April through Sept.
All three minimum threshold criteria are required for an area of convection to be included in a CCFP forecast polygon.
Coverage: identified within each area of convection, in one of four classes:
Lines of coverage
Tops: within each area of convection, the maximum 25% of Echo Tops with at least 18.5 dbz, identified in one of three classes:
Growth Rate: given for each area or line of convection in one of four classes:
Movement: arrow label indicates:
Confidence: the forecaster’s subjective estimate that conditions defined by the minimum CCFP criteria will occur in the forecast polygon at the specified time and place. It will be identified in one of two classes: