Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KEAX 240459)


    (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
    Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014
    
    Very tricky TAF forecast during the first 10 hours of the TAF period
    as fog will be a player during this timeframe. Currently the TAF
    sites have vsbys ranging from 2SM-4SM. These vsbys will either hold
    steady or perhaps even improve with a bkn high cirrus deck moving
    over the terminals. Overnight, this cirrus deck may thin and fog may
    become more dense. If this scenario were to come to fruition, vsby
    would drop to 1/4SM-1SM and as such have added a tempo group for
    those potential conds mainly btn 10Z-14Z. It is during this time
    frame model guidance and soundings are also hinting at a IFR stratus
    deck and have included that in the TEMPO grp as well. But, if the
    high clouds do hold over the terminals all night vsbys will remain
    MVFR even VFR is conds improve. Fog is expected to hold over the
    terminals btn 14Z-15Z when vsbys will lift to P6SM and cigs will sct
    btn 2-3kft. Expect skies to clear tonight and that may set the stage
    for an early onset of fog tomorrow night at fog prone STJ where vsbys
    will decrease in a hurry. Winds thru mid morning will be light out of
    the south before veering to the SSW an increasing to around 10kts.
    Winds will again diminish tomorrow night to around 5kts which will
    also aid in potential fog development tomorrow night.


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