Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KDTX 181744)


    Drier low-level air filtering in behind departing surface high
    pressure to the southeast will limit remaining stratocu development
    through evening, although a pocket of scattered VFR stratocu will
    impact primarily KDTW, KDET, and KYIP. High cloud canopy quickly
    begins spilling into the region the rest of the afternoon, lowering
    with height tonight in advance of a slow moving frontal boundary. A
    surge of moisture will accompany the approach of this frontal
    boundary, with MVFR flying conditions becoming persistent 09z-12z.
    Current timing on onset of first wave of showers still looks to be
    around 11z-12z, with the best potential KPTK and sites south with
    more in the way of drizzle for KFNT and KMBS. Another wave of rain
    looks to impact the sites after the TAF period, with possible
    further deteriorating flying conditions as well dependent upon the
    exact placement of the frontal boundary. Southerly winds 5-10 knots
    will back more southeasterly overnight before a period of light and
    variable winds towards 12z. Frontal boundary placement will
    determine wind direction after 12z, but will go with a light
    southwesterly flow with this issuance.
    
    For DTW...VFR flying conditions through 06z-09z, lowering to MVFR
    ceilings by 09z as surge in low-level moisture lifts into the
    region. MVFR visibility accompanies first round of showers by 12z,
    with potential for further ceiling and visibility reductions
    possible after 18z ultimately dependent on frontal boundary
    placement.
    
    /DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
    
    * High in ceilings below 5000 ft late tonight, persisting through
    remainder of TAF period.
    
    * High for ptype as rain starting Monday morning.
    
    * Low in thunderstorm potential both in occurrence and timing Monday.