Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS64 KFWD 221820)


    IFR conditions will prevail with northerly surface flow.
    
    Southwest flow aloft will remain in place with embedded ripples
    bringing periodic bouts of rain and thunderstorms. The back side
    of the latest impulse is now passing north of the Metroplex, and
    only some lingering shower activity is expected the remainder of
    the afternoon. From Central Texas northeastward into East Texas, a
    stream of showers will continue this evening above an old frontal
    inversion. But for our TAF sites, a rain-free interlude will begin
    before nightfall and continue until the next disturbance arrives
    during the early morning hours Friday. Much like this morning,
    thunderstorms will impact Waco a couple of hours before arriving
    in the Metroplex during the morning push. A brief lull may occur
    from mid-morning into the early afternoon, but another round of
    showers is likely Friday afternoon. With IFR conditions
    continuing during the break, this distinction doesn't need to be
    represented in the TAFs at this time. Subsequent TAF issuances
    can address the timing if necessary.
    
    Even with a break in the rainfall, supersaturation within the
    inversion will assure IFR ceilings remain, and minimal warming
    within the soupy surface layer may keep the visibility in the IFR
    category as well. Guidance hints that some improvement in
    ceilings/visibility may occur during the evening/overnight hours,
    but even with light westerly surface flow, this looks unlikely.
    Veering winds to the northeast in February is indicative of
    deteriorating conditions, and Friday afternoon may be LIFR as a
    result. Regardless, like today, there will be no significant
    improvement after the morning rainfall.
    
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