(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS64 KFWD 221820)
IFR conditions will prevail with northerly surface flow.
Southwest flow aloft will remain in place with embedded ripples
bringing periodic bouts of rain and thunderstorms. The back side
of the latest impulse is now passing north of the Metroplex, and
only some lingering shower activity is expected the remainder of
the afternoon. From Central Texas northeastward into East Texas, a
stream of showers will continue this evening above an old frontal
inversion. But for our TAF sites, a rain-free interlude will begin
before nightfall and continue until the next disturbance arrives
during the early morning hours Friday. Much like this morning,
thunderstorms will impact Waco a couple of hours before arriving
in the Metroplex during the morning push. A brief lull may occur
from mid-morning into the early afternoon, but another round of
showers is likely Friday afternoon. With IFR conditions
continuing during the break, this distinction doesn't need to be
represented in the TAFs at this time. Subsequent TAF issuances
can address the timing if necessary.
Even with a break in the rainfall, supersaturation within the
inversion will assure IFR ceilings remain, and minimal warming
within the soupy surface layer may keep the visibility in the IFR
category as well. Guidance hints that some improvement in
ceilings/visibility may occur during the evening/overnight hours,
but even with light westerly surface flow, this looks unlikely.
Veering winds to the northeast in February is indicative of
deteriorating conditions, and Friday afternoon may be LIFR as a
result. Regardless, like today, there will be no significant
improvement after the morning rainfall.
20:29 UTC |
12:29 PM Pacific |
01:29 PM Mountain |
02:29 PM Central |
03:29 PM Eastern