Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KLOT 111555)


    For the 12Z TAFs...
    
    Main aviation forecast concerns are timing/coverage of light
    precipitation today, and gusty northwest winds around 30 mph with
    scattered snow showers and MVFR ceilings this evening/overnight.
    
    Low pressure was over northern Minnesota early this morning, in
    association with a strong mid-level disturbance which will dig
    southeast across the forecast area today. Initially, some very
    light snow was occurring across far northeast IL ahead of the warm
    front early this morning, but this should be short-lived and have
    little/no impact on the terminals for the next 1-2 hours.
    Scattered rain/snow showers will likely develop over parts of the
    IL/WI border region midday/early afternoon as the main mid-level
    trough arrives, though much of the available high-res model
    guidance keeps much of this north of the terminals. The low will
    move through with a strong cold front very late in the
    afternoon/toward evening, which will shift winds from modest
    southerly to increasingly gusty northwest by early evening.
    Sustained winds around 20 kts with gusts 30 kts or a bit higher
    can be expected, from 320-340 deg. With much colder air spreading
    in, scattered snow showers and flurries will be possible,
    primarily during the evening hours. MVFR ceilings in the 2000-2500
    ft range are likely behind the front. Winds will only slowly east
    into Tuesday morning, with ceilings gradually rising to VFR and
    eventually scattering.
    
    Ratzer