Document: 6885 | Created: 10:00 07/16/2019 UTC | Page: 01
Description: VOLC | Ash Cloud Forecast       | Washington VAAC|
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FVXX20 KNES 160448
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20190716/0448Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: POPOCATEPETL 341090
PSN: N1901 W09837

AREA: MEXICO

SUMMIT ELEV: 17802 FT (5426 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2019/559

INFO SOURCE: GOES-EAST. NWP MODELS. ASH3D.
VOLCAT. RADIOSONDE.

ERUPTION DETAILS: VA EMS FIRST SEEN AT 16/0411Z.

OBS VA DTG: 16/0436Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 N1904 W09902 - N1903 W09842
- N1859 W09848 - N1858 W09901 - N1904 W09902 MOV
W 15-20KT

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 16/1030Z SFC/FL200 N1905 W09905
- N1902 W09837 - N1859 W09838 - N1857 W09905 -
N1905 W09905

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/1630Z SFC/FL200 NO ASH EXP

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/2230Z NO ASH EXP

RMK: VA SEEN IN STLT MOV W AS WX CLDS BREAK.
MAIN AREA OF VA IS CURRENTLY 12 NM FM SUMMIT WITH
SOME TRAILING VA AND GASES BEHIND IT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOW A CONT W-WARD MOV THRU T+06 HRS.
HGT AND MOV BASED ON SOUNDING, SATELLITE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE. ...KIBLER

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20190716/1045Z

FVXX21 KNES 160653
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20190716/0653Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: REVENTADOR 352010
PSN: S0004 W07739

AREA: ECUADOR

SUMMIT ELEV: 11686 FT (3562 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2019/763

INFO SOURCE: GOES-EAST. NWP MODELS. ASH3D.
VOLCAT.

ERUPTION DETAILS: ONGOING VA ACT LIKELY

OBS VA DTG: 16/0630Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL160 N0001 W07757 - S0004 W07740
- S0005 W07740 - S0004 W07759 - N0001 W07757 MOV
W 15-20KT

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 16/1230Z SFC/FL160 N0001 W07757
- S0004 W07740 - S0005 W07740 - S0004 W07759 -
N0001 W07757

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/1830Z SFC/FL160 NO ASH EXP

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 17/0030Z NO ASH EXP

RMK: VA IS NOT SEEN IN STLT IMAGERY DUE TO WX
CLDS. VA IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA DUE TO ACT OVER
THE LAST 12 HRS WITH MULTIPLE INTMT VA CLDS SEEN
MOV W-WNW.  HGT AND MOV BASED ON STLT, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PAST ACT. ...KIBLER

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20190716/1300Z