(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS61 KBOX 141217) Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z Update... Short Term /through Tonight/... Today...Moderate to high confidence. Widespread IFR-LIFR conditions in heavy rain this morning. Low risk for an embedded t-storm or two across eastern MA/RI. The inversion holds across the interior where LLWS will be a big concern along with areas of fog. A period of strong winds will mix down across portions of southeast New England where southerly wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots expected roughly between 14z and 18z. Strongest of those winds across the Cape/Islands, where gusts up to 55 knots can not be ruled out. The heavy and steady rainfall ends by afternoon, but additional scattered showers are expected through the remainder of the day. Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Scattered showers this evening gives way to mainly dry weather overnight. IFR-MVFR conditions this evening trend towards VFR conditions overnight. However, WSW wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots expected with up to 45 knots across the Cape/Islands. KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Sunday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. RA, SN likely, PL, FZRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, chance SN, FZRA likely, PL likely. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.