Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS61 KBOX 141515)


    Forecaster Confidence Levels...
    Low - less than 30 percent.
    Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
    High - greater than 60 percent.
    
    Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.
    
    15z update...
    
    Back edge of the snow shield at 15z was moving across Cape Cod
    and Nantucket, rapidly eastward and should be offshore by 16z or
    so. Latest snowfall reports indicate 1-3" from HFD-PVD-PYM
    southward including Cape Cod and the Islands. Satellite imagery
    indicates back edge of the cloud shield is across central
    portions of CT/MA and moving steadily eastward. Thus upward
    trend to VFR all terminals late this morning into the afternoon.
    Light winds become WNW and increase 15-20 kt 21z-03z. Previous
    discussion below.
    
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    Today...High confidence.
    Period of snow with MVFR-IFR conditions moves along the south
    coast and Cape/Islands through 16Z. Northern edge of MVFR from
    BDL-PVD with areas of IFR to the south, especially across the
    Cape/Islands. Mainly VFR cigs along and north of BAF-ORH-OWD.
    Improving conditions this afternoon with gradual clearing from
    NW to SE. W-NW gusts 20-25 kt develop in the afternoon,
    strongest higher terrain.
    
    Tonight...High confidence.
    VFR. Clear skies and light winds.
    
    Friday...High confidence.
    VFR with mid level clouds moving in during the afternoon. Areas
    of MVFR cigs developing late afternoon Cape/Islands.
    
    KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. A few flurries possible
    this morning but any vsby restrictions should remain to the
    south.
    
    KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Brief MVFR
    cigs/vsbys in light snow possible for a few hours this morning,
    but lower conditions should remain to the south.
    
    Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
    
    Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
    Slight chance SHSN.
    
    Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts to
    30 kt.
    
    Sunday: VFR.
    
    Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
    SHSN.
    
    Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
    SHRA, slight chance SHSN.