Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KCAE 210641)


    
    Surface low over the north coast of SC will continue moving to
    the NE. Latest satellite nighttime microphysics enhancement
    indicates stratus wrapping counterclockwise around the low,
    moving west across the Pee Dee and into the eastern Midlands.
    Westward progress of the stratus may be impeded by low level
    wind flow gradually decreasing and backing to more of a light
    NW. Latest guidance and satellite loops indicate good chance of
    stratus, with IFR CIGs, affecting OGB, with MVFR CIGs possibly
    affecting CAE/CUB later. Elsewhere, mostly clear skies and light
    winds could promote fog at fog prone AGS. However, increasing
    mid and high level cloudiness later this morning could impede
    development or lead to improving VSBYS.
    
    Will monitor convection to our N and NW shifting southward.
    Latest high resolution models suggest possibility that
    convective cluster could hold together and shift S/SE towards
    AGS/DNL this morning. Will monitor progress of this activity.
    For now, will indicate VCTS at AGS/DNL later this morning until
    confidence of TSRA affecting those locations increases.
    
    Otherwise, next upper short wave and surface boundary to shift
    SE towards our forecast area late this afternoon and tonight
    and could promote additional convective development, some
    possible severe. Again, for now, will indicate VCTS late in the
    TAF period at all TAF sites until confidence warrants greater
    mention.
    
    EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered to numerous mainly
    afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Late night/morning
    fog/stratus possible.