Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO


    Broad upper trough over the central CONUS with weak upper
    ridging off the SE coast. Closed upper low moving east towards
    the Ohio valley. Surface low over W TN with warm front to our
    west and south. Upper impulses interacting with the front
    providing convection over S GA/N FL. This activity is expected
    to shift east and remain just south of our forecast area (FA)
    this evening. Warm front to shift north into our FA tonight
    ahead of a cold front and prefrontal band of convection,
    currently stretching across central TN into N AL, approaching
    from the NW. Will expect lowering CIG heights later tonight in
    response to the approaching warm fron and will include LLWS
    with indications of a fairly strong low level jet developing.
    Main concern will involve potential for convective activity,
    possibly severe, to affect the FA late tonight. Main upper
    energy to remain just to our north, with some guidance
    indicating the convective activity weakening as it moves into
    our FA. However, latest HRRR maintains potent band of convection
    moving across the FA 06Z-10Z tonight. Combination of shear and
    mainly elevated instability will provide a severe threat with
    strong straight line winds appearing to be the main threat. Due
    to uncertainity, will indicate a predominant period of SHRA
    with VCTS late tonight, and tweak later based on radar trends
    and latest guidance. Improving CIGs expected Tuesday morning.
    Main upper trough will come through late Tuesday with main cold
    front pushing through the northern FA during the morning, and
    through the central and eastern FA Tuesday afternoon. Some
    convective activity will be possible mainly S/E FA and towards
    the coast Tuesday afternoon, and could be severe, and would be
    more likely to affect OGB than the other TAF sites. Breezy
    conditions expected to develop Tuesday.
    EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some CIG restrictions possible late
    Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR and continued
    breezy through Thursday.