Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KCAE 230613)


    
    Expect IFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Low-level
    wind shear may be an issue beginning around 22z.
    
    Low-level moisture will remain high in a wedge-ridge pattern
    and expect continued IFR conditions. The models and water vapor
    imagery trends support the deep plume of moisture staying mainly
    just west and north of the forecast area. Support for showers
    will be greatest just northwest of the terminals and closer to
    the deeper moisture and greater upper lift associated with a
    series of mid-level shortwave troughs on the northern periphery
    of the upper ridging off the Southeast Coast. The high-
    resolution models display mainly scattered shower coverage
    mainly just west and north of the terminals. There should be
    continued periods of drizzle because of the warm advection
    pattern above the wedge ridge.
    
    The models depict the wedge/warm front lifting farther northward
    tonight. It may reach the southern terminals late but confidence
    is low. Expect continued IFR conditions. Fog may become more
    dense closer to the warm front. Shower coverage may increase
    with a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold
    front but the bulk of these showers will probably hold off until
    after 06z. The NAM and GFS maintain surface-based stability
    through the night and we expect limited mixing and wind. These
    conditions combined with the low-level jet increasing ahead of
    the cold front support low-level wind shear becoming an issue.
    We included the shear in the terminal forecasts based on the
    NAM.
    
    EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High confidence for continued
    flight restrictions early Sunday associated with the cold
    front. It will become breezy and dry behind the front later
    Sunday. High pressure is forecast in the region Monday and
    Tuesday with dry conditions and diminished winds. Widespread
    restrictions could occur Wednesday associated with an onshore
    flow or possible low pressure development in the region.