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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS64 KFWD 231240 AAA)


    
    /12z TAFs/
    
    Concerns: Convective trends and potential MVFR cigs later tonight.
    
    CAMs and other models in the first 12-18 hours have really
    struggled with the complex timing of embedded shortwaves rotating
    through the base of the main upper low tracking east from the
    Panhandles toward KS/MO through tonight. As such, confidence
    beyond mid-late morning is fairly low on timing and potential for
    TS/VCTS after 00z this evening, particularly DFW Metro airports.
    The HRRR/RAP progs are the most aggressive on developing discrete
    supercell TS off a dryline to the W-NW of particularly the DFW
    Metro late this afternoon, as another shortwave ripples
    progressively east across the Red River Valley. Meanwhile, TTU
    WRF, SPC HREF, and NAM models are much more subtle and benign with
    little to no development at all. With this period beyond 12z in
    the TAFs and very "conditional", I have elected to just go with a
    VCSH wording versus VCTS and let future TAFs monitor and project
    convective development in a more confident and precise manner.
    
    VFR cigs continued to lower to between FL030-050 along and west of
    I-35 this morning in response to a 30-40 LLJ nocturnally migrating
    east in response to the approaching mid level height falls. I
    expect cigs to most likely remain VFR, though am concerned that
    high MVFR cigs above FL020 could sneak in/out of Waco mid-late
    morning. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will be likely at all airports by or
    shortly after 05z Sunday as a slightly veered, 35-45 knot LLJ
    redevelops.
    
    South winds around 15 knots with gust at times in excess of 20
    knots are expected through 24 hours, considering the dynamic,
    early Spring environment the area will be under. There will be
    obvious spikes and lulls regarding speeds, but we do not expect
    the dryline and associated, brief veered surface winds to make it
    near the I-35 corridor late today or early this evening.
    
    05/