Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KGSP 221804)


    
    At KCLT and elsewhere: convective coverage (mainly in the form of
    showers) is expected to steadily increase through the afternoon,
    warranting VCSH at KAVL beginning at 20Z. Steering currents will
    tend to take cells that develop toward the NE, and it therefore
    appears that KHKY is the only other terminal that will have much of
    a chance of a shower over at least the next 12 or so hours. A VCSH
    is included there during the evening, mainly as a nod to a back door
    front that will be approaching the area from the north and NE
    tonight. Fropa should occur at KHKY by daybreak, turning wind to
    light NE and likely resulting in development of IFR cigs, with cigs
    restrictions expected to continue through the morning, although
    gradual improvement is likely. Otherwise, other than valley fog and
    low stratus advertised in the mtn valleys (including KAVL), VFR is
    forecast through the period. It is uncertain as to how far south and
    west the backdoor front will push before stalling. Low cigs cannot
    be ruled out at some point tomorrow from KGMU/KGSP to KCLT, but
    confidence is low at this point.
    
    Outlook: Anticipate coverage of showers and storms to increase again
    Sunday afternoon in association with back door cold front. Weak cold
    air damming may support restrictions and occl showers/light rain
    late Sunday into the early part of the work week. A cold front
    moving in from the west will then bring higher chances of showers
    and storms during the latter half of the week.
    
    Confidence Table...
    
    18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
    KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High  86%
    KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAVL       High 100%     High  97%     Med   72%     High  92%
    KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  81%
    KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link:
    
    www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

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