Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO


    At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds will remain fairly light across the
    region this morning with a stalled surface frontal boundary draped
    west to east across the area. Showers developing in the warm sector
    air to the west will likely push across the southern Appalachians
    toward daybreak and hold together best across the southern tier,
    with KAND to KGMU to KGSP see the best chance of morning showers
    through 15Z. Showers may be a bit spottier across the NC terminal
    areas. As the showers push through a region of MVFR to lower VFR
    cigs will likely develop, with the best chance of prevailing MVFR at
    KAND. Expect winds to toggle south to southwest east of the
    mountains and become gusty with the arrival of the showers from the
    west. KAVL will be the main exception, with light winds becoming
    A digging shortwave will cross western North Carolina this evening
    and provide the best triggering for strongers showers/thunderstorms.
    Will feature PROB30 for convection mainly from KHKY to KCLT after
    Outlook: Drier conditions return briefly on Sunday before moisture
    returns again from the west with a complex low pressure system on
    Monday and Tuesday. Colder air may wrap south into the region behind
    the system on Wednesday and some mixed precipitation cannot be ruled
    out. Restrictions will be likely in the Mon-Wed period.
    Confidence Table...
    06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
    KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High 100%
    KGSP       High 100%     High  84%     High  87%     High 100%
    KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KGMU       High 100%     High  80%     High  86%     High 100%
    KAND       High 100%     High  88%     High  82%     High 100%
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link: