Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KGSP 211914)


    
    At KCLT and elsewhere: Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon at
    most sites, with light showers currently on radar in the mountains
    west of all the TAF sites.  These showers will increase in intensity
    and spread over all areas in the next few hours.  Showers decline
    and become very widely scattered after 02Z.  Despite migration of
    upper trough that is increasing shear and helping to force
    thunderstorms today, surface pressure pattern does not change very
    much in the next 24 hours.  Main surface low traverses the southern
    Great Lakes area, which keeps front outside the area through Friday,
    with a models lee trough east of the Southern Appalachians, that
    will keep a southwesterly bias to the sometimes variable winds.  As
    moisture remains in place, more showers and thunderstorms will be
    possible Friday afternoon.  Fog is possible Friday morning, and is
    most likely in and close to the mountains, especially at the KAVL
    and KHKY TAF sites.
    
    Confidence Table...
    
    19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
    KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAVL       Med   76%     High  82%     Med   62%     High  94%
    KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   62%     High  96%
    KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  85%
    
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link:
    
    www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

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