Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
Select Site:

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KGSP 100314)


    
    At KCLT and Elsewhere: Very light precipitation continues across
    the area within very shallow CAD wedge, with the precip seen only
    at very low elevations on radar imagery. In most spots temperatures
    are above freezing and the precip is either -DZ or -PL. Cigs have
    improved to low MVFR over the mountains (KAVL) and western Upstate
    (KAND). These are expected to gradually fall back to all IFR over
    the next few hours, especially as light precip redevelops/expands
    beneath a shortwave trough that will advect over the area. The wedge
    will continue to weaken, and temperatures should remain more or
    less steady if not rise slightly. The next wave of precip will be
    predominantly RA over the Upstate, but SN or PL will occur at the
    NC sites. Ice crystallization looks somewhat less likely at KHKY
    so a FZRA mention is made in TEMPO, but that would depend on temps
    dipping below freezing again, which is expected to be brief if it
    occurs at all. Appreciable low-level drying is not expected until
    mid to late afternoon, with a continuing chance for light precip,
    so TAFs have been leaned toward the more pessimistic guidance. IFR
    thus is fcst to continue until at least midday.
    
    Outlook: Anticipate high pressure arriving from the west, with
    drying developing Monday night through Wednesday. Deeper moisture
    will return, with associated restrictions, Thursday through Friday.
    
    Confidence Table...
    
    03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
    KCLT       Med   76%     High  81%     Med   72%     Low   51%
    KGSP       High 100%     High  90%     High  85%     High  80%
    KAVL       High 100%     High  83%     High  87%     High  80%
    KHKY       Med   72%     High  81%     Med   75%     Med   66%
    KGMU       High 100%     High  81%     High  81%     Med   75%
    KAND       Med   75%     High  89%     High  83%     Med   70%
    
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link:
    
    www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation