Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
Select Site:


    Mostly VFR for the remainder of the afternoon, though will
    probably see some intermittent 2000-3000ft cigs closer to the
    coast at times.
    Eyes turn to the north late in the day where showers and tstms are
    expected to develop along a cold front that'll be sagging into
    northern parts of the region during the late evening hours and
    eventually closer to the coast heading into the sunrise hours
    Sunday. Will be on the lookout for some isolated strong to severe
    cells near the CLL/UTS areas in the 3-8z time period. Conditions
    should theoretically become less favorable for severe wx further
    south as we lose heating and instability. That said, some of the
    higher resolution models are suggesting the potential for a re-
    strengthening band of shra/tstms making their way toward the metro
    & coastal areas from the northeast in the 9-13z timeframe. Will
    spare the meteorological reasoning, but overall confidence isn't
    too high in regards to specifics at this point. Depending on how
    things evolve one can be on the lookout for some TAF amendments
    during that timeframe (took the middle of the road approach to
    fcst conditions with the TAFs there for now). Strong wind gusts
    and visibility restrictions will be the primary aviation concern
    near the stronger cells with small hail a secondary concern.
    Ceilings will fall into MVFR territory ahead of the front later
    this evening, with the potential for some pockets of IFR behind
    it - especially north of I-10. Mcldy conditions should persist
    into Sun with some lingering rainfall. Ceilings should slowly
    lift during the late morning and early afternoon hours. 47