Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS61 KILN 160759)


    
    At 05Z, VFR conditions across the TAF sites except for ILN where
    some shallow MVFR visibilities had developed thanks to evening
    storms and a brief period of clearing. Think most sites will be
    susceptible to a brief period of MVFR visibility through
    sunrise if some clearing can develop and persist for an hour or
    two, but looking at latest GOES imagery shows most of the
    pockets of clearing are quite small, so expect mostly cloudy
    skies /mid clouds/ to persist through sunrise.
    
    After sunrise, there may be a few showers that develop toward
    CVG/LUK/DAY on an arc of weak moisture transport but don't
    expect much in the way of restrictions. Think sct/broken VFR
    clouds will persist across the sites through the day, and bulk
    of the day will be dry. Past 19Z or 20Z, expect scattered
    showers and a few storms to develop in random/scattered nature
    over the entire area as remnants of TD Barry approach as an
    opening shortwave trough, but a more focused/concentrated area
    of activity to the west over Indiana. This will move/develop
    toward KDAY/KCVG/KLUK by early to mid evening. Could be some
    brief MVFR or even IFR restrictions in torrential rainfall rates
    with this activity, but don't have confidence in
    coverage/location to indicate anything more than prevailing
    showers /VFR/ right now. This axis of moisture/forcing will
    cross the TAF sites tonight but again - don't have a good
    feeling for coverage and don't think this will be a
    widespread/long event at any given TAF site - instead being
    bands of progressive showers and a few storms with very heavy
    rainfall rates for brief periods of time. Expect TAFs to be
    refined in later issuances in terms of timing of heaviest
    showers which may bring MVFR/IFR restrictions especially in the
    evening to early overnight. Late in the night could see a
    ceilings lower to MVFR categories as low level moisture peaks
    with the passage of the trough.
    
    OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Wednesday. Thunderstorms
    possible Wednesday.