Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
Select Site:

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KLOT 192348)


    
    For the 00Z TAFs...
    
    648 PM...Forecast concerns include...
    
    Possible wind shift/outflow early Saturday morning.
    Patchy fog early Saturday morning.
    Wind shift/cold front late Saturday afternoon/early evening.
    Chance of thunderstorms...mainly Saturday evening.
    
    Southwest winds will remain occasionally gusty through sunset with
    speeds diminishing to 10kts or less later this evening. Convection
    currently over northern WI is expected to remain north of the
    IL/WI state line overnight...though trends will need to be
    monitored. But the further south this activity trends tonight...
    the better the chance of an outflow moving across the terminals
    toward daybreak Saturday morning. Confidence is low and currently
    do not have any outflow/wind shift in this forecast.
    
    Given the very moist airmass...there is a chance of fog/haze
    overnight/Saturday morning and maintained mention at rfd/dpa but
    confidence is low.
    
    Southwest winds will continue...or return if there is an early
    morning outflow...on Saturday with gusts likely from mid morning
    into the afternoon. A wind shift/cold front is expected late in
    the afternoon or early Saturday evening...shifting winds to the
    northeast. Confidence on the timing of this front is low and if
    the coverage of thunderstorms across WI is large enough Saturday
    afternoon...this could push the outflow/wind shift through faster.
    Eventually...winds are expected to turn northeast Saturday
    evening.
    
    Thunderstorm trends Saturday afternoon into Saturday night are
    uncertain. The above mentioned wind shift/front may be the focus
    for thunder development at the terminals. With the later wind
    shift timing...went with later thunder timing. Some of the models
    are actually rather dry even with the wind shift. Thus confidence
    remains low for this time period. cms