Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
Select Site:

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS65 KPSR 261207)


    Updated at 1200z
    
    South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
    
    A slow moving low pressure system southwest of the area is
    bringing plenty of uncertainty in the forecast but trends and
    guidance continues to suggest showers and embedded storms likely
    to move through the terminal area this morning, primarily between
    12/14Z through 16/18z, depending on the terminal. Showers and
    storms may produce downbursts, heavy rain that reduces visibility,
    blowing dust, and extended periods of variable wind directions
    and gusts upwards of 25-30 kt. Cigs will likely drop between
    070-110 with periods of lower cigs near 050 possible. During a
    lull in showers during the late morning through parts of the
    afternoon, confidence in wind direction are uncertain and may
    depend on how the morning activity clears. Periods of NW-NNW-N-NNE
    seem likely during the early afternoon and may become strong in
    excesses of 10-12 kts with gusts in the upper teens if convection
    over the higher terrain creates an outflow. Additional showers
    are possible again this evening along with breezy to gusty SE
    outflow windshifts from stronger thunderstorms east of the Valley.
    Gusts near 17-28 will be possible.
    
    
    Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
    
    Showers and thunderstorms may brush the terminal area Sunday but
    are mostly expected to stay east of the Colorado River. Easterly
    outflows are possible, particularly at KBLH, but confidence is too
    low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, winds will
    shift from SSE to W through the day at KIPL while speeds remain
    AOB 9 kts. At KBLH, non-thunderstorm related winds will also have
    speeds AOB 9 kts with directions generally favoring some
    southerly directional components. SCT-BKN mid and high decks
    expected at KBLH and FEW-SCT mid-high cloud decks at KIPL.