Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
Select Site:

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS65 KPSR 221151 AAA)


    Updated at 1150Z
    
    South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
    Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
    
    Across the greater Phoenix area through the day we do not expect
    impacts from former Hurricane Lorena. Except for some high clouds,
    look for generally sunny skies into the afternoon before FEW high
    based cumulus decks form. Winds will be on the light side, favoring
    typical diurnal tendencies, with southeast winds becoming
    southwest/west after 21z. Tropical moisture will start to be drawn
    north into the Phoenix area during the evening, with SCT-BKN decks
    around 8-10k feet developing by around midnight, and as we move into
    the morning hours on Monday, isolated showers will likely start to
    develop. After midnight FEW-SCT decks near 5-6k feet may start to
    form. Thus the mention of VCSH in the TAFs after 08z. Cannot rule
    out thunderstorms forming but confidence is rather low and timing
    and exact location of storms too difficult to pinpoint at this time
    so we will wait until at least the next package before adding
    thunder into the TAFs.
    
    No impacts expected out west during the TAF period. Winds to be
    rather light and somewhat variable, favoring the south to southwest
    this afternoon and evening at KBLH and favoring southeast during the
    afternoon at KIPL before gradually swinging towards the southwest.
    
    Tropical Storm Lorena, currently centered over Guaymas Mexico,
    will continue to weaken with time. In fact, upper portions of the
    storm will be shearing toward the northeast. Through this
    afternoon, there will be little discernible impact to the TAF
    sites. An approaching trough in the Westerlies will pull remnant
    moisture northward Sunday night and Monday leading to an upward
    trend in storm chances - most notably during the daytime and
    evening hours Monday (mainly east of the Lower Colorado River
    Valley).
    
    Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.