(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS65 KPSR 311957) Updated at 1733Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: An upper low centered over far northern Baja, MX will slowly track south-southeastward along the peninsula through Wednesday morning before beginning to track eastward across northwest Mexico. Showers are expected to primarily affect western Maricopa County and western portions of Greater Phoenix (including GEU and GYR). But, anticipate showers in the vicinity at the rest of the TAF sites through at least 20Z. Showers expected to taper off during the latter half of the afternoon. Given the persistent location of the showers, a westerly component will be favored for the surface wind but east/northeast in the lower levels above the surface due to the gradient. Given the push and pull of those counter-acting factors, variability in wind directions will be common through at least 20Z before westerly component takes hold later in the afternoon. As for sky cover, anticipate ceilings of BKN-OVC050 (possibly as low as BKN-OVC040) but otherwise BKN-OVC060-080. Ceilings gradually increase during the afternoon and evening. Couldn't rule out a stray shower overnight but expect those, if any, to stay over Pinal County. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: An upper low centered over far northern Baja, MX will slowly track south-southeastward along the peninsula through Wednesday morning before beginning to track eastward across northwest Mexico. Northerly surface winds will predominate this afternoon with some gustiness of 20-25 kts. Northerly winds linger this evening before trending to westerly at KIPL late tonight (continuing N/NWly at KBLH overnight). At KIPL, ceilings of BKN- OVC070-090 will slowly increase this afternoon and evening before scattering out later tonight (ceilings already AOA BKN120 at KBLH). AJ FIRE WEATHER...18