Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Forecast help
The TFM forecasts provide a high-resolution model blend denoting a high confidence graphical representation of forecasted convection. The convective forecast domain is the Flight Information Regions (FIR) covering the 48 contiguous states and adjacent coastal waters. A Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Convective Forecast (TCF) training package may be found at https://tfmlearning.faa.gov/.
TCF Help
The TCF graphics are produced every 2 hours with valid products 4-, 6-, and 8- hours after issuance and represent forecast convection meeting specific criteria of coverage, intensity, and echo top height. For inclusion in the TCF, all designated criteria must be met for both area and lines of convection to meet the minimum TCF criteria.
TCF Criteria
Areas of convective cells containing (at a minimum)
- Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ;
- Echo tops at or above FL250;
- Coverage (1 & 2) of at least 25% of the polygon area;
- Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (1, 2, & 3) will be met.
Lines of convective cells
- Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ having a length of at least 100 nautical miles (NM); and
- Having a linear coverage of 75% or greater; and
- Having echo tops at or above FL250.
- Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (1, 2, & 3) will be met.
Verification
Verification for TCF is available on our verification page, and the Earth Systems Research Laboratory’s (ESRL) Global Systems Lab Convective Weather Verification Service prototype: https://esrl.noaa.gov/fiqas/tech/convective/monitor/
Government and airline industry Air Traffic Management (ATM) decision makers need timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance forecasts of convection across the Continental United States and adjacent coastal waters. These forecasts will allow ATM decision makers to proactively and collaboratively initiate, amend, or terminate planned or active Traffic Flow Management initiatives, resulting in safe and efficient use of the National Airspace System (NAS).
Purpose
- 1. Intended to provide an accurate representation of the convection of most significance for strategic decisions of air traffic flow management;
- 2. Intended to provide a common forecast baseline, as consistent as possible, shared and collaborated among all meteorological organizations responsible for providing forecasts of convection to Air Traffic Management (ATM) within the FAA/Industry Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) processes and/or within commercial aviation organizations; and
- 3. Intended for use as the authoritative source of convective weather forecast information for Traffic Flow Management strategic planning and decisions which are collaborated between the government and industry.
The TCF is used by air traffic management decision-makers in support of convective weather mitigation strategies within the NAS. It is designed to meet the needs of TFM decision makers at the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), FAA Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) Traffic Management Units (TMU), and airline and corporate Flight Operations Centers (FOC).
Areas of convection are identified by blue polygons or solid purple lines in the TCF forecasts. Coverage is indicated by broken hatching (25-39%) and striped hatching (40-74%). Within each TCF polygon, maximum echo tops encompassing coverage greater than 25% are identified in one of four classes:
- 1. 25,000 - 29,000 feet MSL are identified as 290
- 2. 30,000 - 34,000 feet MSL are identified as 340
- 3. 35,000 - 39,000 feet MSL are identified as 390
- 4. 40,000 feet MSL and above are identified as >400
A line of convection containing high coverage (75-100%) is displayed as a solid purple line, meaning a solid line of forecast convection alone, or within an area (polygon) of coverage.
ASCII Format
The TCF is also available via ASCII coded text via NOAAPort. The ASCII files are issued under the following WMO headers:
- FAUS28 KKCI – 4 Hour Forecast
- FAUS29 KKCI – 6 Hour Forecast
- FAUS30 KKCI – 8 Hour Forecast
General Format
Note: CCFP is used instead of TCF within the product for backward compatibility CCFP ISSUED VALID
AREA COVERAGE CONFIDENCE GROWTH TOPS SPEED DIRECTION VERT# LAT[1]
LON[1] .... LAT[VERT#] LON[VERT#] LATT LONT
LINE COVERAGE VERT# LAT[1] LON[1] .... LAT[VERT#] LON[VERT#]
CANADA_FLAG {ON/OFF}Header Format
| CCFP | TCF Header | 4 Characters |
| ISSUED | Forecast Issuance Time (UTC) | CCYYMMDD_hhmm |
| VALID | Forecast Valid Time (UTC) | CCYYMMDD_hhmm |
Forecast Area Format
| AREA | Convective Area | 4 Characters |
| AREA COVERAGE | Convective Coverage | 1 Digit Integer Code |
| Medium | = 2 40%-74% | |
| Sparse | = 3 25%-39% | |
| CONFIDENCE | Confidence | 1 Digit Integer Code |
| High | = 1 50%-100% | |
| GROWTH | Not Used in TCF | 1 Digit Integer Code |
| = 3 | (convective growth code not used) | |
| TOPS | Storm Height | 1 Digit Integer Code |
| FL400 | = 1 | |
| FL350-FL390 | = 2 | |
| FL300-FL340 | = 3 | |
| FL250-FL290 | = 4 | |
| SPEED | Not Used in TCF | Integer |
| = 0 | ||
| DIRECTION | Not Used in TCF | Integer |
| = 0 | ||
| VERT# | Number of LAT/LON pairs | Integer |
| LAT[x]LON[x] | Vertex Latitude and Longitude | Integer Pair |
| Latitude | = LAT * 10.0 degrees | |
| Longitude | = LON * -1 * 10.0 degrees | |
| LATT LONT | Lat and Lon of left center box | |
| Latitude | = LATT * 10.0 degrees | |
| Longitude | = LONT * -1 * 10.0 degrees |
Forecast Line Format
| LINE | Convective Line | 4 Characters |
| LINE COVERAGE | Convective Coverage | 1 Digit Integer Code |
| Solid | = 1 75%-100% | |
| VERT# | Number of LAT/LON pairs | Integer |
| LAT[x]LON[x] | Vertex Latitude and Longitude | Integer Pair |
| Latitude | = LAT * 10.0 degrees | |
| Longitude | = LON * -1 * 10.0 degrees | |
| LATT LONT | Lat and Lon of left center box | |
| Latitude | = LATT * 10.0 degrees | |
| Longitude | = LONT * -1 * 10.0 degrees |
eTCF Help
The Extended TCF (eTCF) graphics are produced every 2 hours and valid at 2 hour increments from 10 to 30-hours after issuance time. Designation criteria for eTCF are the same as for TCF and listed under the TCF tab. The polygons are derived based on the agreement on the location of convective features between the blended model solutions.
Government and airline industry Air Traffic Management (ATM) decision makers need timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance forecasts of convection across the Continental United States and adjacent coastal waters. These forecasts will allow ATM decision makers to proactively and collaboratively initiate, amend, or terminate planned or active TFM initiatives, resulting in safe and efficient use of the National Airspace System (NAS).
Purpose
- To provide an accurate representation of the convection of most significance for strategic planning/decisions for extended (10-30 hour) time of air traffic flow management;
- To provide a common forecast baseline, as consistent as possible and shared among all meteorological organizations responsible for providing forecasts of convection to ATM extended (10-30 hour) planning within the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/Industry Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) processes and/or within commercial aviation organizations; and
- To use as the authoritative source of convective weather forecast information for TFM strategic and extended (10-30 hour) planning and decisions which are collaborated between the government and industry.
The eTCF is used by ATM decision-makers in support of convective weather mitigation strategies within the NAS. It is designed to meet the needs of TFM decision makers at the FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center, FAA Air Route Traffic Control Center Traffic Management Units, and airline and corporate Flight Operations Centers.
Areas of convection expected to be indicated by composite radar reflectivity values of at least 40 dBZ are identified by blue polygons in 2 hour increments for 10-30 hour forecasts from the issuance time. Coverage is indicated by broken hatching (25-39%) and striped hatching (40-74%). Within each Extended TCF polygon, echo tops are assigned by the maximum 75th percentile echo tops in the polygon derived from four high resolution models. The echo tops are denoted as:
- 1. 25,000 - 29,000 feet MSL are identified as 290
- 2. 30,000 - 34,000 feet MSL are identified as 340
- 3. 35,000 - 39,000 feet MSL are identified as 390
- 4. 40,000 feet MSL and above are identified as >400
ECFP Help
The Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP) identifies graphically where in the US thunderstorms are likely during a 3-hour window, from approximately Day 2 through 4. This forecast is based only on the model output probability of thunderstorms. The ECFP begins at hour 30 and continues through hour 87.
The uses TCF style graphics facilitates ease of interpretation and use with TCF. It is intended to enhance the TFM Collaborative Forecast (TCF) which is only valid out to 8 hours. The product is not a TCF forecast (it is not forecasting the exact TCF criteria), but intended to support the long range planning for TCF type of constraints in the National Airspace System.
The ECFP will be available 24/7. It will be updated around 01:00, 07:00, 13:00, and 19:00 UTC each day.
The ECFP planning tool has been developed in response to FAA and Industry needs in planning for weather hazards, specifically convection, one to two days in advance. To meet these planning needs, and to support TCF planning beyond 8 hours, the ECFP is intended to provide traffic planners and collaborators a quick-look forecast of the greatest probability of convection/thunderstorms.
The ECFP is intended for FAA Traffic Managers at Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC), FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), airline and aviation industry dispatch and flight planners, and private weather vendors supporting airline/FAA.
This automated graphical forecast is created from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm output. Contours are drawn at 30, 50, and 70% probability using TCF-like shading. Dashed areas represent 30-49% probability, solid lined areas represent 50-69% probability, and solid blue filled areas represent greater than 70% probability
New 3 Hour ECFP
This new ECFP depiction is an automated graphical forecast created from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm guidance with forecast times valid in 3 hour intervals. Probability of Thunderstorm contours are depicted at 30, 50, and 70% probabilities. Blue hashed areas represent 30-49% probability, solid orange-lined areas represent 50-69% probability, and solid magenta-filled areas represent greater than 70% probability.
Archive ECFP
The archive ECFP information will retain the legacy ECFP graphics. This product is also an automated graphical forecast created from the (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm guidance. Probability of Thunderstorm contours are depicted at 40, 60, and 80% probabilities, using TCF-like shading. Hashed areas represent 40-59% probability, solid lined areas represent 60-79% probability, and solid blue filled areas represent greater than 80% probability.
FAQ
What has changed recently?
The entire site was overhauled in October 2023. For information about the most recent updates, please see the change log.
How often do you update the website?
We fix critical bugs as soon as possible, and we deploy functional upgrades regularly. Please let us know if you find something that isn’t working.
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As part of the upgrade to the site, some pages were consolidated and some URL's have changed. Check out the link conversions to find what you are looking for. If you are still unable to find the information you are looking for, submit a question using the envelope in the top right.
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Where is the METAR page?
The interactive Graphical Forecasts for Aviation observation tab displays METARs along with other current data including surface fronts and radar imagery. To view METARs alone, click on the Layers button at the top right corner of the map and deselect items you do not wish to view. Decoded METARs can be displayed by enabling the "decoded METARs" option in the Map Options under the gear icon on GFA.
Raw and decoded textual METAR data can be displayed by selecting the Products dropdown and selecting METAR data.
Where is the Satellite/Radar page?
Satellite and radar imagery are available on the observations tab of the interactive Graphical Forecasts for Aviation, that displays surface observations, imagery, fronts, and more in one place. Satellite imagery is an optional layer available from the layer selector in the upper right corner of the map. To display satellite or radar imagery alone, deselect items on the layer selector to simplify the display.
How can I submit PIREPs?
Sign up for an account on our registration page, select PIREP Submit Access, and be sure to include your airmen’s certificate number or affiliation with an airline, flight school, government or military organization for validation purposes to streamline the process. Accounts are validated via the FAA Airmen Inquiry.
Then watch your email in order to verify your address and then confirming your account. Once you have an account and are logged in, select "Submit a PIREP" from the Tools dropdown and fill out the form. For more information on PIREP submit, use the link at the bottom, or click here.
How do I access the Flight Path Tool?
The flight path tool is now embedded into the interactive Graphical Forecasts for Aviation map. Click on the route button along the right side of the map to open the display. Enter the airports to navigate, and select the product you wish to display from the dropdown. Watch a video on how to use the cross sections here.
Where is the HEMS (Helicopter Emergency Medical Services) tool?
The HEMS tool has been integrated into the interactive Graphical Forecasts for Aviation. Click on the helicopter button in the upper right part of the map to switch GFA from general aviation mode into low-altitude mode, which offers similar features as the HEMS tool.
What happened to ADDS?
The ADDS static graphics were phased out and replaced with the Graphical Forecasts for Aviation, which offers greater flexibility and configurability; some static graphics continue to be available for decision support. The ADDS Text Data Server has been succeeded by the Data API. Please let us know if you need assistance with the migration.
How can I display list of METARs and/of TAFs? What about decoded products?
The METAR and TAF data pages provide access to raw, tabular, and decoded output that automatically refreshes every five minutes. The page is designed for quick lookups and printability.
Where is the Text Data Server? How do I download METARs?
The Text Data Server was discontinued and has been replaced by the Data API. The new data offerings are more flexible and provide more data. Interfaces designed for greater compatibility with the Data Server to ease the transition as well as cache files to retrieve many reports at once are also available.
How do I access data for previous dates?
The METAR data page displays up to the previous 96 hours of observations. The Archive View allows viewing nearly all products on the site as they were presented for up to the past two weeks. For data more than 14 days old please reference the resources available on bottom of the Archive View page.
Data appears to be missing. Where can I find more information?
Automated status information and the latest announcements can be found on the status page
Why is a particular station not reporting?
The site generally displays all observations within a minute or two of being reported as we receive it. Individual station outages are usual indicative of a problem at the source. AWC does not maintain weather stations or observing platforms.
What do all of the map symbols indicate?
A full listing of map symbols is available.
Why is the map dark?
Dark mode is automatically applied based on systems settings. Selecting the person icon in the upper right and toggling the switch to the left disables this mode.