Gate Forecast Help

Gate Forecast Edit Help

When a forecast has been edited, a couple of things will change. The display itself won't look different (see Fig. 1). But if you click on a gate, the "Run" column will show up as "Edited". The time that forecast was edited will show in the "Update" column. These forecaster edits will persist even though new HRRR based forecasts update each hour. The forecaster is free to revert the forecast to the HRRR baseline if needed. The TS25 and TS60 columns will still show the HRRR coverage percentages and will be appropriately colored.

The second difference is that the forecast can enter an assessment of the overall HRRR baseline. This will show below the display in a gray bar. If there hasn't been a forecaster assessment, this won't show up. Keep in mind, the forecaster could enter "Model OK, no change" to say they agree with the model. In this case, the forecaster last looked at the forecast at 1921UTC and mentioned there was "Minimal change".

Figure 1. Gate Forecast with edits

When you log in to the web site and have edit capabilities, you'll see an "Edit" button appear in the right side of the blue header bar (See Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Gate edit button

Click on that at you'll go to the editor page (See Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Gate editor page

The "Fcst" column will allow the forecaster to change the color to either green, yellow or red if they believe the actual conditions merit a change from the HRRR baseline. There is a "Revert" option which will invalidate the previously edited forecast from the database. Reverting will result in the forecast for that gate going back to the HRRR baseline.

There are three buttons below each gate section:

  • Revert - reverts to previous forecast. This is if you made a change on the page and just want it to go back to what it was when you entered the edit page.
  • Revert to HRRR - this will enter a forecaster edit which takes it back to the HRRR baseline. This would be used if at some point in the future, the HRRR baseline was a better forecast than the prior forecaster edit. For example, you edit the forecasts at 1530Z thinking storms are going to develop at 21Z but then reviewing this at 1830Z, it obvious they won't and the HRRR forecast reflects this. This is a way to reset the forecast back to the HRRR baseline. This will show up as a user edit but is a quick way to overwrite and older forecast.
  • Revert to Green - this is like the revert to HRRR except it changes all the forecasts for that gate to green. This will also show as a user edit.

At the bottom of the page are links to images that show the HRRR output (See Fig. 4). This is a merge of the three time-lagged HRRR runs. Yellow dots show where the algorithm believes the thunderstorm chance is greater than 25%. Red dots are for greater than 60%. This shows what the HRRR looks like for these hours so you can visually assess whether the HRRR is realistic or not.

Figure 4. HRRR forecast output

Once done, there is a "Forecaster Assessment" drop down at the top of the page. This gives the forecaster the ability to relate their feelings on the forecast. No comment is the default which won't put an assessment into the database. You can select:

  • No comment
  • No change - model OK
  • minimal
  • moderate
  • major change
This doesn't preclude a forecaster from no making any edits and selecting "No change - model OK" because this will show that a forecaster has reviewed the forecast and made no changes from the HRRR baseline.

Then clicking the "Update Forecasts" button will enter the forecaster edits into the database.

The forecaster edits will persist for the 9 hours the data are available. For example, if you edit the forecasts and 1530Z and make a change to the 20 and 21Z forecast, those will persist until the 21Z forecast is no longer displayed on the page.

The popup box on the site page will show "Edited" in the "Run" column if a forecaster has modified that forecast. The time of the edit will show up in the "Update" column. Also, the time at which a forecaster last looked at the forecasts (clicked update forecast), will show up in a gray bar below the site display as:

Forecaster reviewed at 1821UTC Jun 28 - Minimal change (See Fig. 1)

This will display for 6 hours after a forecaster edit.